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Qualification scenarios: England's wobble gives other teams hope

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ICC CRICKET WORLD CUP, 2019

England's two successive losses have given other teams hope

England’s two successive losses have given other teams hope © AFP

While Australia became the first team to qualify for the semi-finals of the ICC Cricket World Cup, 2019, the hosts find themselves in a spot after their two successive losses. Here’s the current situation and what teams need to do in order be part of the final four, with Afghanistan and South Africa already out of the race:

Points table (at the end of Match 32):

Team Mat Won Lost NR Points NRR
Aus 7 6 1 0 12 0.906
NZ 6 5 0 1 11 1.306
Ind 5 4 0 1 9 0.809
Eng 7 4 3 0 8 1.051
Ban 7 3 3 1 7 -0.133
SL 6 2 2 2 6 -1.119
Pak 6 2 3 1 5 -1.265
WI 6 1 4 1 3 0.190
SA 7 1 5 1 3 -0.324
Afg 7 0 7 0 0 -1.634

Australia (Qualified)

New Zealand:Kane Williamson’s side sit comfortably in the top half of the table and are a win away from sealing a semifinal spot. They are unbeaten in the tournament so far and are slotted to play Pakistan, Australia and England next.

India:With four wins and a no-result in five matches, India sit comfortably in the top half of the table. Two wins out of their remaining four games will assure them a semifinal spot and they are in contention for a top of the table finish.

England:Sitting comfortably on eight points from their first five games, two untimely defeats have put England’s advance in jeopardy. They are set to play India and New Zealand – the two unbeaten teams in the tournament so far – and will be through should they win both those matches.

Should England win only one game, then all three of Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Pakistan should lose at least one of their remaining matches. In such a scenario, Sri Lanka will end with a maximum of ten points, but England will pip them on the number of wins (England will have five wins to Sri Lanka’s four) while Pakistan and Bangladesh can end up with a maximum of nine points.

It is mathematically possible for them to go through with eight points i.e. they lose to both India and New Zealand, provided:

– Bangladesh lose both their remaining matches (against India and Pakistan) and end on seven points

– Pakistan lose to both New Zealand and Afghanistan and end on seven points

– Sri Lanka suffer defeat in at least two of their three games left and end on a maximum of eight points

– West Indies lose at one of their three remaining games and end on a maximum of seven points

Bangladesh:Mashrafe Mortaza’s side have been one of the teams to watch out for in the tournament, landing killer blows to South Africa and West Indies during their journey. If they beat Pakistan and India in their last two games, they end with 11 points and they would need another couple of results to go their way. They would want either England to lose at least one of their remaining matches or the unlikely event of India to lose all their remaining fixtures.

It is unlikely they will go though with one win and nine points, despite the mathematical possibility, because of their negative NRR.

Sri Lanka:It was the island nation’s unexpected win over England which gave the teams in the bottom half of the table a fresh lease of life. Sri Lanka are on six points and are competing directly with England as these two sides could end up with the same points. If Sri Lanka win all their three games, they would just need England to lose at least one of their two matches, considering the hosts have more wins than Sri Lanka should a tie on points happen.

If Sri Lanka win only two out of three, then they would need England to lose to both India and New Zealand and both Bangladesh and Pakistan should lose at least one match each.

If Sri Lanka lose two more matches, they stand eliminated.

Pakistan:After an upset win against England at the start of the tournament, Pakistan lost their way in the middle before a win against South Africa put them back in contention. Three matches remain for them and three wins should take them to 11 points. In that case, they would require either England to lose at least one of their remaining games or either of New Zealand and India to lose all of their remaining fixtures.

West Indies:After a win in their opening fixture against Pakistan, West Indies have remained winless in the tournament. Should they lose at least one more game, they stand eliminated. If they win all their remaining games (India, Sri Lanka and Afghanistan), then they would end with nine points and would need other results to go their way to go through. In the unlikely event of the fourth team tied on seven points, a good positive NRR puts them in good stead to qualify.

Afghanistan & South Africa (Eliminated)

© Cricbuzz

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